Monday, November 7, 2011

Marketing Update September 30, 2011, London, Ontario


The Market continues to be solid driven by First Time Buyers purchasing their first home.  Sales are off 61 units and currently sit at 3245 on a year to date basis to September 30, 2011. Sales from July 1 through to December 31, 2010 last year were much softer than the same period so far this year.  Everyone bought last year early prior to the implementation of the HST.  The turnabout started in August and continued through September

Month                  2010                       2011                       % Chge

July                        357                         344                          -3.8%

August                  297                         354                         +19.2%

September           273                         362                         +32.6%


Inventories are up marginally from 1494 units to 1624 units active and For Sale at the end of September.  The Listing to Sell Ratio which is the actual percentage of homes that Sell during their listing period sits at 51% for The London St. Thomas Association of Realtors jurisdiction (includes Condominiums).  The city of London Single Family Residential sell through of a listing has actual decreased from a high in 2010 of 52% for the first 9 months to 49% for the same period in 2011.  In other words, 51% of the homes currently listed for sale will not sell during their listing period.

Home Values:

Prices continue to rise across all areas, with the exception of St. Thomas.  Prices in London are up 1.9% to an average of $257,514 for the period ending September 30, 2011.  Buyers paid an average of $1930 more for their new home in London this year. Based on current volume trends and inventories coming to market, it would appear that the current level of prices should climb slightly and sales should continue at their current levels. 

What's CMHC Saying about London:

CMHC (Canadian Mortgage and House Corporation) are forecasting stability.  Unemployment is not projected to change much (high in this area) and net immigration into London will continue on the positive side, averaging 2,200 more families per year, for next 2 years.  The average house price rose 68% from 2000 to 2011, while incomes rose only 28%.  The average renter’s income in London is $35,000.  London enjoys the lowest First Time Buyer’s age in Ontario.  The market entry age group of 25 to 34 is still a fast growing segment of the market.  The average family moves up every 5 years.  The 35 to 44 year old group will be in decline slightly in the next few years.  The luxury home market over $400,000 in London also continues to grow. However Single Housing Starts are projected to be down for the year and lower next year. Multiple unit starts will be up!  Demand and Supply for Single family, Semis & Rows, and Apartments will continue to increase over the next 10 years.  Demand will generally outpace supply.  The city of London had over 2500 lots serviced and ready in the pipeline.  As stated there will be a demand for higher end homes and generally homes will be generally of higher quality but slightly smaller in size. Condominium Apartments will replace Condominium towns in 2012 and return to more balance in 2013.  An important factor is the statistic that more Seniors, per capita, live independently in their own homes in London.  This is the highest level in Ontario.